I see 4 set of predictions so far by the "Internet Media"..... Stags are listed 9th, 5th, 7th, and 10th. At this early point, Iona and Siena deserve to top 2 spots, due to the success and accomplishments of their returning players. And Niagara has to be 11th due losing Mason from an 11th place team. The "Middle - 8" is very close, and there could be a wide swing between 3rd and 10th. Saint Peters getting a lot of "Media" love for 3rd place...... a team we should have beat 3 times last year. However they do return 2 of the top players in the MAAC in Dominque and Desi.
The highest preseason pick by those listed is 5th by HoopsPulse. Interestingly, the HoopsPulse summary does not mention Malcolm, Threatt or Degnan at all yet they list Sean Grennan as our 6th man this year and write that someone named Donte Adams will be battling for the starting SG position.
Last Edit: Sept 30, 2014 11:24:18 GMT -5 by stag76
Doesn't bode well. That publication obviously didn't do their homework. Scary though that the others may have and the best we get is 7th. Good thing is they mean nothing. Bad thing for Syd if it holds true...
Last Edit: Sept 17, 2014 14:38:54 GMT -5 by tmaac71
John Templon's MAAC RPM predictions at nycbuckets.com:
First the projected MAAC standings according to RPM and previous pythagorean ratings (approximate KenPom rank in parentheses): 1.Siena 0.6682 (~90th) 2.Iona 0.5595 (~135th) 3.Saint Peter’s 0.5366 (~145th) 4.Manhattan 0.5318 (~145th) 5.Monmouth 0.5118 (~150th) 6.Fairfield 0.4585 (~180th) 7.Quinnipiac 0.4537 (~180th) 8.Marist 0.4451 (~180th) 9.Rider 0.3970 (~200th) 10.Canisius 0.3612 (~225th) 11.Niagara 0.2697 (~275th)
My understanding of RPM is it strictly measures the value of those players who played for that school the previous season. In other words, these rankings don't include any potential changes that might occur to a squad due to contributions from newcomers (transfers or freshmen).
Here's the link to the article where Templon explains why he thinks the RPM rankings underestimate the strength of Iona and Manhattan and overestimate the ranking of Monmouth and Marist: www.nycbuckets.com/2014/09/maac-rpm-thoughts/
Sure hope we look back at these preseason predictions in late February and laugh at how just about everyone mistakenly has us playing in a PIG yet again.
Sure hope we look back at these preseason predictions in late February and laugh at how just about everyone has us playing in a PIG yet again.
Fine, this site (dalydose) might be right, but the fact is they do not list even one of our new players as contributors to the cause. Again, every one of these prognostications have to be taken with a grain of salt IMO.
Last Edit: Oct 8, 2014 15:01:17 GMT -5 by nashvillestag
Can anyone provide a wrap-up of 2013-2014 projections vs. results? Could provide better comparison of each site/writer.
We finished 10th last year, right? Predictions I could find were Daly Dose-8th, Big Apple-6th, Athlon-4th, ESPN-6th, Pomeroy-6th, and Blue Ribbon (Paxton) 7th. Remember, coming off a reasonable season in 2012-13 (19 total wins) I think it was hard to anticipate the total collapse that was to occur. Going into this year maybe the karma is more negative until the team proves it is better. As far as the league in general last season and the predictions, most correctly had Iona, Manhattan and Canisius at the top. The big miss was Quinnipiac and perhaps St. Peter's being rated way too low. On the other hand Rider and Marist were a bit too high.
Remember, coming off a reasonable season in 2012-13 (19 total wins) I think it was hard to anticipate the total collapse that was to occur. Going into this year maybe the karma is more negative until the team proves it is better.
I agree that expectations from the prior year do carry over to the next year; However, I see it more from a clear Math perspective
- 2 years ago, we had returning guards that had 7,896 minutes of college experience...... we finished with 19 wins - 1 Year ago, we had returning guards that had only 487 minutes of college experience...... we needed a "special" guard like Needham/Han/Todd to finish with more than 7-10 wins - This Year, we have returning guards that have 3,382 minutes of college experience...... my extrapolation says we win somewhere around 15, unless we have a "special" guard that emerges.
I actually I compare this years team to the 2003 19-win team that had freshman Todd join sophomores Goode and Sogadzi. I see Rose/Chappell/StevieJ as similar to Goode/Sogadzi in ability. Nelson similar to Michael Bell. But the Big Question is if Demarcus Threatt can be a Terrance Todd. If Terrance Todd was not part of that 2003 team, we would never have gone to the MAAC Championship game. I feel we need Threatt to be that player.
Can anyone provide a wrap-up of 2013-2014 projections vs. results? Could provide better comparison of each site/writer.
We finished 10th last year, right? Predictions I could find were Daly Dose-8th, Big Apple-6th, Athlon-4th, ESPN-6th, Pomeroy-6th, and Blue Ribbon (Paxton) 7th. Remember, coming off a reasonable season in 2012-13 (19 total wins) I think it was hard to anticipate the total collapse that was to occur. Going into this year maybe the karma is more negative until the team proves it is better. As far as the league in general last season and the predictions, most correctly had Iona, Manhattan and Canisius at the top. The big miss was Quinnipiac and perhaps St. Peter's being rated way too low. On the other hand Rider and Marist were a bit too high.
In addition to the information provided by Nashville, here's last year's Sporting News MAAC predictions: 1. Manhattan 2. Iona 3. Canisius 4. St. Peter's 5. Quinnipiac 6. Marist 7. Fairfield 8. Rider 9. Niagara 10. Siena 11. Monmouth
And last season's final MAAC regular season records: 1. Iona 17-3 2. Manhattan 15-5 3.Quinnipiac 14-6 4.Canisius 14-6 5.Siena 11-9 6.St. Peter's 9-11 7.Rider 9-11 8.Marist 9-11 9.Monmouth 5-15 10.Fairfield 4-16 11.Niagara 3-17
Post by nashvillestag on Oct 17, 2014 12:00:07 GMT -5
For your info (without comment), concerning Blue Ribbon only, since 2007 they picked the Stags as follows. 2007-10th (actual finish-6th). 08-5th (5th). 09-2nd (4th). 10-4th (2nd). 11-1st (1st). 12-2nd (4th). 13-6th (7th). 14-7th (10th).
Can anyone provide a wrap-up of 2013-2014 projections vs. results? Could provide better comparison of each site/writer.
An article by Kevin Whitaker on nycbuckets.com comparing preseason projections (e.g. Pomeroy) with preseason coaches or league experts polls. Not exactly what milford requested but sort of in the neighborhood:
From the article: ...But how accurate are these projections? In particular, how do they compare to the preseason coach and media polls, which aggregate the opinions of league experts? To test this, I’ve compiled preseason projections and polls from the last few seasons, benchmarking them against the final conference standings. (For example, Siena was picked to finish 10th in the MAAC last season, but actually finished 5th, for an error of five spots.) Here are three findings:1. Preseason projections are about as predictive as the polls...2. Projection systems seem to be improving faster than the polls...3 The best available predictor is a combination of projections and polls..
And the summation sentence from the nycbuckets projections vs. polls article: ...So when the projections and polls disagree widely... an in-between prediction might be best.