Our problems can be summed up with three simple words - "We can't score". According to ESPN, we finished 322nd in America in scoring with only 63.4 points per game, and 339th in field goal percentage, making only .398 of our shots. There's our problem in a nutshell, we need more players who can shoot the ball.
Our offense is definitely a huge concern going into 2014-15. What is our offensive scheme going to be? How do we improve on a .398 shooting percentage?
IMO, our low FG% has more to do with not getting easy/open shots. Open layups off passes, O-board Putbacks, and transition baskets off steals….. the types of baskets we should shoot 80-90%. Also, we just need more players that can penetrate and dish to open shooters. I think we had good shooters last year, but not enough players that could create good offensive opportunities for the shooters. I think adding the shooting Nelson, a Big man that can shoot in Degnan, a JUCO to Marcus, Smith and Chappell, give us a lot of guys who can make the shot.
But it also comes down to having a 2G that can score/pass/Handle. That’s a scoring position, and probably the position that we had the worst production. We need someone at 2G who can give us production of a Needham or Terrance Todd
Yes our scoring was low, but actually it was higher than the previous year when we won 19 games. What really was quite a bit worse than recent years was our defense (70PPG). The biggest reason for the poor performance on both ends of the court was the free throw inbalance IMO. Indeed opponents MADE 688 attempts from the line while the Stags only ATTEMPTED 607 (making 416). Another reason for the inbalance, opponents had 243 steals (leading to a lot of high percentage baskets against us) while the Stags has just 141. These factors caused as much or more of the problems than the shooting ability of the players.
Chappell looked like he was pressing quite a bit last year, but I really liked the look of his shot. I know it seems crazy, since we saw so little of him for much of the season, but I still have hopes that he can be a contributing two guard. I think he and Nelson will battle for time, unless we get a Juco transfer, and I think Segura will push KJ for time. We need speed and quickness at the guards in order for Smith to play, because he struggles to match up on the outside against the opposing 3 man. If he could play inside a bit more and be a stretch four, he'd give us a lot more flexibility, but he's too weak right now.
Potential Starters:
1. KJ Rose 2. Tyler Nelson 3. Marcus Gilbert 4. Coleman Johnson 5. Amadou Sidibe
I think Sydney should be looking to split Sidibe and Malcolm at the 5, because they struggle with fouls. Occasionally they could play together, but I think it would be better to have them each focusing on center. Malcolm can instantly change the game with his presence and should allow our guards to press their wings and point more, while Amadou is more of a banger on the boards. Marcus has to help more on the boards, because I think we left the 4 and 5 alone too much to rebound last year. If our 1, 2, and 3 don't rebound, we won't be successful. I really think Smith should be rotating with Coleman to give us two good pick and pop players. He can make the opposing 4 uncomfortable by drawing him way away from the basket. Segura has to be able to facilitate if KJ gets into foul trouble or needs a breather, because I don't see another pg among the bunch. I think we're likely to play in a PIG next year, but I think we will be much better than this year (even though that doesn't seem so hard to imagine, sadly).
Well we probably will get a JUCO transfer at guard. Hopefully he will be the real deal. As far as Nelson and Chappell competing for time, they both are good shooters, but I think you will see that Tyler is a much better ballhandler and passer, and that in itself should mean he will get more time. As far as Smith rotating with Coleman, I don't see that at all. Actually I believe you will soon see Degnan getting a lot of minutes rather than Smith because he is great in the pick and pop (and pick and roll), and he has a much more rounded game than Steve at this point. And actually concerning Smith, I still see him spelling Marcus for a few minutes at a time (just like this past year) with his value increasing if he has improved some of his skills other than shooting through his offseason work.
Yes, we did score more points this past year than last year , but that was because our Pace of Play was much faster this past year. Actually our Offensive efficiency was worse this past year. It was ranked 311th . As a comparison to 2012-13 where our offense efficiency was ranked 180th (before Wade’s injury), and 350th (after Wade’s Injury)
But our FTA differential was certainly a major issue. We were ranked dead last (351st) in giving up FT’s. I agree that it is a bigger issue than our shooting. But both can be related to our 102 less steals. Give us 100 more steals in a game and we probably shoot 75% on those steals, and reduce our fouling by about 100 FT’s. That’s where our lack of Quickness and Ballhandling exposed us. We need to get more easy baskets….. the kind even I can make.
Post by bridgeport on Apr 15, 2014 14:53:51 GMT -5
fairfield seemed to want to slowwwwly grind it out in a half court offense. they did not seem to want to trap or press or run. that " style " did not seem to work in the year 2014. i doubt if it will work in 2015. what do thieves and good basketball teams have in common ? they are quick, and they run - - -
Post by redseastag on Apr 15, 2014 15:08:20 GMT -5
Good point on Smith, Nashville. I definitely forgot to include Degnan in there. I think it's great that Smith can space the court, but we didn't have inside threats, unfortunately. Whether it was guards that could drive and score or post men who could finish one on one, we just lacked a presence. Mo might have been our one guy that could keep the defense honest.
I do think that Nelson will play in front of DC, but Doug will get his minutes this year.
If Degnan can get boards and stay out of foul trouble, he has to play. I also wonder how people feel about Coleman as a potential sixth man?
Here's another MAAC prediction for '14-'15 already:
John Templon @nybuckets Projected 2014-15 MAAC standings using RPM: Siena, Iona, Man, SPU, Mon, QU, Marist, Fairfield, Niagara, Rider, Canisius.
We are predicted to finish behind St. Peter's, QU, and Monmouth once again and Canisius is picked for last since they had so many seniors playing significant roles for them this past season.
Apparently, RPM stands for Real Plus Minus: .... The sell is that Real Plus-Minus (RPM) tells you how much better a team played on offense and defense when a given player was on the floor, and how much that improvement was that individual player's doing.