Even the most diehard fan has to admit there is very little chance that we will win the MAAC tourney this year.
Looking a bit further down the road, a question becomes, what is a reasonable expectation for next season? I just looked up some stats and found that the most improved teams from year to year (i.e. number of victories from one year to the next) generally improves by about a dozen victories. The Top 20 most improved teams are in the 8+ range.
Let's assume that this year's team finishes at something around 6-25 (it's painful to type that). Assuming a dramatic improvement in victories (not a given), we are probably still looking at a sub .500 record in 2014-15.
Thus, in trying to being realistic, the odds say that we better get used to losing ... at least for another season.
Not that anyone listens to this old dog, but I would strongly recommend to Doris and Johnson that next year's schedule be considerably less ambitious. Getting a few non-conference wins early on, even if they are against lesser competition, just might help build player confidence while also keeping fans from getting too agitated early in the season.
After Iona's (2-28)(1-17) record in the 2006-07 season, they had two more seasons of sub .500 basketball before they were contenders again. Iona has had 4 consecutive 20+ win seasons and should have a 5th this season again and is currently tied for 1st place in the MAAC with Canisius. Iona will be a favorite for another NCAA bid this season.
Iona Basketball: 2013-14 Season Stats 12-8, 9-2 MAAC 1st place (2/1/14) 2012-13 Season Stats 20-14, 11-7 MAAC Champions & NCAA Tournament 2011-12 Season Stats 25-8, 15-3 MAAC Regular Season Champions & NCAA Tournament at large bid 2010-11 Season Stats 25-12, 13-5 CIT Finalist 2009-10 Season Stats 21-10, 12-6 2008-09 Season Stats 12-19, 7-11 2007-08 Season Stats 12-20, 8-10 2006-07 Season Stats 2-28, 1-17 2005-06 Season Stats 23-8, 13-5 MAAC Champions & NCAA Tournament
Good point that Iona was able to turn the program in a relatively short amount of time. The part you left out though was that the old coach was fired and they found two consecutive successful replacements thereafter.
Willard (moved onto Seton Hall BigEast) Cluess (have done a great job in retaining his services and his staff)
Post by reindeerfan on Feb 1, 2014 10:58:37 GMT -5
One common theme in many of these turnaround stories is the addition of talent. While our talent will improve most programs that are a rock bottom bring in a least one stud who helps turn the program around. We have no scholarships available and while we have some nice recruits, I'm not sure we have the kind of difference maker that will be needed for us to see a dramatic change.
I think vastagman's point is a good one. We better schedule sacred heart 2 or 3 times next season, because even with a dramatic improvement in our existing players its unlikely we will be looking at anything much better than 500 next season.
Post by reindeerfan on Feb 1, 2014 11:19:06 GMT -5
Another common theme in these turnarounds is usually a coaching change. In the case of Jeff Ruland before his dismal 2-28 season his record was 137-107. He had won 23 games the prior season, and taken the gaels to 3 NCAA tournaments in only 9 years. But he was swiftly dismissed after winning only 2 games. I don't think you will see this kind of swift action at Fairfield.
We better schedule sacred heart 2 or 3 times next season, because even with a dramatic improvement in our existing players its unlikely we will be looking at anything much better than 500 next season.
Maybe local basketball powerhouse NJIT, currently ranked #16 by the NY POST will be available.
I think .500 unfortunately is a realistic expectation for next year.
In my opinion I like the scheduling of half teams we should beat and half we shouldn't.
I think confidence can be gained in losses to good teams as well. If we are truly going to become a top mid major you don't do it by scheduling all lower level teams. Although the wins may feel good they don't really add to our credibility. Just my opinion
If you're struggling to beat the little guys, you shouldn't worry about playing the big guys.
Create a nice schedule composed of low majors and mid-majors, and maybe play one "stretch" game (like Providence). Teams like Wisconsin-Green Bay and Belmont present more than enough of a challenge at this point. Playing Louisville/UConn/Georgetown … makes no sense as far as I'm concerned.
When the program gets back on steady ground, then be more aggressive with scheduling.
I still think we can win the MAAC Tourney this year. We did it twice before from last place, and Siena has won it needing 4 straight wins. But Next Season begins March 6th of this year(20140..... that is when Freshman turn into Sophomores.
Lots of examples of when teams took a nose dive after losing their entire backcourt..... only to rebound the next season
- Certainly Iona won only 2 games after Soliver Burtt - Rider won only 4-5 and was last place after Jerry Johnson and Tayler graduated games..... and they had NBA LOttery pick Jason Thompson as a soph - Siena lost Moore and Ubiles and had trouble winning with 2 POY's .... Rossiter and Anosike - Stags played 2 frosh guards in Goode and Kudjo and had a poor record, but next year we lost to Manhhatan and Flores in the MAAC Championship
I still think we can win the MAAC Tourney this year. We did it twice before from last place, and Siena has won it needing 4 straight wins. But Next Season begins March 6th of this year(20140..... that is when Freshman turn into Sophomores.
Lots of examples of when teams took a nose dive after losing their entire backcourt..... only to rebound the next season
- Certainly Iona won only 2 games after Soliver Burtt - Rider won only 4-5 and was last place after Jerry Johnson and Tayler graduated games..... and they had NBA LOttery pick Jason Thompson as a soph - Siena lost Moore and Ubiles and had trouble winning with 2 POY's .... Rossiter and Anosike - Stags played 2 frosh guards in Goode and Kudjo and had a poor record, but next year we lost to Manhhatan and Flores in the MAAC Championship
WOW!!!!! Give me some of what you are drinking because we live in 2 completely different universes.
Post by 01041949bob on Feb 1, 2014 16:03:58 GMT -5
Agree with Tmacc----its people like JStag that keep hoping for miracles that keep this nutty Coach around--bulletin: there is no miracles with this Coach--only continual losses
Agree with Tmacc----its people like JStag that keep hoping for miracles that keep this nutty Coach around--bulletin: there is no miracles with this Coach--only continual losses
The stags missed plenty of open looks today, many missed layups and perimeter shots. The players have to knock down these open looks.
Bob, you were clamoring for JJ to be out there and SJ gave it to you- Sidney started him. You saw what you got- zero assists, six turnovers and five fouls (fouled out).
At some point, the players have to perform and execute. Cant blame the coach for everything.