Post by nashvillestag on Oct 18, 2012 0:12:28 GMT -5
Just got the Blue Ribbon Magazine for this season. Stags picked 6th (Loyola picked #1). But actually it was Paxton who wrote all the stories on the league and the teams, so you sure can't say he is a homer. His basic reason for the low rank revolves around a couple of things. #1, he thinks the consistency of Wade, Nickerson, Barrow and Mathews has to get better (he believes a great year from Needham is a given as he predicts All League for Derek). And #2, he (like many of us) is unsure about how much help the newcomers will provide. Certainly he has some logic in his reasoning, but I do think we will do a bit better than he says.
Paxton has Blue Ribbon write-ups for the MAAC for a few years, but this was the first time he did the whole MAAC. The nice thing about Blue Ribbons predictions is that these are not necessarily Paxton's predictions ....... he takes in a lot of input from the MAAC coaches, like it should be. He is not like some of the other Bozo's that make predictions just because they have a Blog..... like us
With that said, I think his write-up of Fairfield is accurrate, however, my beef is that many of the other teams are overrated. Their high rankings are based on freshman and players who have played mostly on losing teams their entire MAAC career..... expecially a team like Niagara, who really has played poorly the last 2 years.
Bottom line is that 1-7 will still be very close.
Blue Ribbon Predictions 1. Loyola 2. Manhattan 3. Iona 4. Niagara 5. Siena 6. Fairfield 7. Marist 8. Rider 9. Canisius 10. Saint Peter's
All-MAAC Team Derek Needham, Juan'ya Green, George Beamon, OD Anosike, Erik Etherly
Player of the Year: Beamon Newcomer of the Year: Nurideen Lindsey
I have a subscription to ESPN Insider which has the Blue Ribbon team profiles online. Here is a subset of what was said about Fairfield...... I think its spot on, but I do think that Sydney should be more confident than just saying we would be "competive" for the championship come March
In the second year of Johnson's tenure, the Stags return a veteran backcourt, led by 5-11 senior Derek Needham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 apg), but they have a lot more questions than answers going in.
Who is going to man the post?
Do they have any shooters?
Can any of the five freshmen contribute right away?
Do they have a bench?
"I think certain teams can go into the season feeling like they have all the answers for anything that comes their way," Johnson said. "We felt that way last year. This year I'm going to say we don't have all that."
What Fairfield does have is one of the best players in the MAAC in Needham, who missed the final eight games last year with a broken left foot. Needham said over the summer the foot was healed, but he will still have to play with a screw inserted for added insurance that it heals properly.
A first-team all-conference selection two years ago, Needham, and the Stags, struggled early last season while getting used to playing with Boston College transfer Rakim Sanders.
Before Sanders' arrive, Needham was clearly the man, but it took time for both players to adjust to playing together and for the team to adapt as well.
That should not be an issue again with Sanders graduating and Needham having a strong relationship with his senior backcourt mates, 5-8 Desmond Wade (6.3 ppg, 3.0 apg) and 6-3 Colin Nickerson (4.7 ppg, 1.3 spg).
While Sanders was a proven talent, Wade and Nickerson have offered only glimpses of what they can do.
Wade, who finished with 97 assists and 44 turnovers, too often deferred to others early in the season as he adjusted to a new team after transferring from Houston. His arrival did allow Needham to play more off the ball, but Wade can do more than just give the Stags a solid ball hander at the point. He showed that against Siena when he scored a season-high 27 points.
In three years, Nickerson has given Stag fans some glorious moments -- like his 14 huge points in an upset win over Iona in the MAAC semifinals -- while also driving them nuts. The good Nickerson, with his high energy, surfaced late last season with Needham and Wade (broken hand) out and he averaged 9.7 points in seven postseason games. Johnson hopes he sees more of that Nickerson this season.
"I think Derek has achieved a certain level of consistency and maintained that," Johnson said. "With Colin and Dez we have got to see that in a Fairfield uniform and we have to see it from game one to game thirty or however many we get. Then everyone else can kind of fill in and fall in line.
"If you don't have your three main guys, and that's what I think we have with three senior guards who are going to be responsible for the leadership of the team, [then everyone else can't fall into line]."
The front line might be where the biggest concerns are, with both Sanders and 7-foot center Ryan Olander gone. Two 6-5 juniors, Maurice Barrow (9.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Keith Matthews (3.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg) are now the veterans at forward, with 7-0 sophomore Vincent Van Nes also hoping to crack the mix.
Barrow has the most accomplished resume, starting with All-MAAC rookie team honors in 2011 and being a two-year starter. Last season he led the team in scoring four times and in rebounding nine times, while also posting four double doubles.
Matthews hardly got off the bench in November, but instead of sulking, he opted to start working harder in practice, which led to more floor time on game days. He averaged 8.8 points and almost four rebounds in the postseason.
"Keith was putting in extra time to kind of measure up to how we wanted to play, and he thrived," Johnson said. "It was all his hard work."
Just like with Nickerson and Needham, Barrow and Matthews need to show up more frequently now.
"It's fair to say we want Keith and Mo to develop and be consistent every game starters -- that's clear -- but for example Keith hasn't done that yet in his career," Johnson said.
Van Nes has yet to even see the floor in his Fairfield career because of reoccurring foot problems and also an NCAA eligibility issue. He sporadically practiced with the team last season, and Johnson said the plan is for Van Nes to see the floor.
The bench is also unsettled after junior guard Jamel Fields and senior guard Sean Crawford transferred to Saint Peter's and Adelphi University, respectively. Sophomore Adam Jones also left the team for a Division II school in Florida.
Fairfield will have to rely on five incoming freshmen to provide some immediate help and depth.
The group includes Wings Academy's (N.Y.) Justin Jenkins, a 6-2 combo guard. Also on board are 6-8 forward Amadou Sidibe from Cardinal Hayes (N.Y.), 6-10 Croatian center Josip Mikulic, from North Broward Prep in Florida; Coleman Johnson, a 6-foot-7 forward from Paul VI Catholic in Virginia; and 6-6 forward Marcus Gilbert from Academy of the New Church in Pennsylvania.
"My goal is February or March we'll have the things figured out that we need to figure out and be competitive," Johnson said.
BLUE RIBBON ANALYSIS
BACKCOURT: A BENCH/DEPTH: C FRONTCOURT: B INTANGIBLES: B
If last season was expected to be a magical one for the Stags, this year could be described as a journey into the unknown.
Sure, Needham is back healthy and remains one of the best players in the conference. However, the real question for the Stags isn't how their star guard will play -- it's who else will show up each night?
Wade, Nickerson, Barrow and Matthews are all veterans but need to display more consistency if the Stags want to go places. Fairfield also needs to find some sort of steady contributions from the large freshmen class.
"We still have to figure out a couple of things [compared to last season], but I still think we are going to be very competitive," Johnson said. "If I thought any less, I'd be a lot more worried."
Fairfield has a challenging non-league schedule once again, with DePaul, Providence, the Preseason NIT, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Old Dominion and Drexel. A losing mark coming out of that is not unreasonable to expect, but in the MAAC the real key to the season is what happens over a four-day period in March.
If Johnson can count on his senior backcourt, the Stags could play their way into the conference championship picture and maybe even capture that first NCAA trip since 1997. Or, it could be a step back for the Stags if the veterans fail to deliver.
Post by nashvillestag on Oct 18, 2012 8:48:24 GMT -5
Another important thing regarding how some of the other teams may match up with Fairfield that I don't think is really considered is the fact that the Stags have been a far superior defensive team than most of the others. And with the addition of a lot more size that is available when needed, I certainly think this could be a difference maker in pushing them towards the top of the standings as the league season plays out.
Agree that Defense plays a big part in winning.... actually the most important thing, especially in the regular season. And we not only added height, but players at differrent sizes, quickness and strength to matchup against anyone. Plus I think we have added 2 players that will be lock down defenders in 6-6 Gilbert and 6-8 Sidibe.
Our Defense should always be consistent and thats the main reason why we have won a lot of games the last 3-4 years. It should put us near the top again this year.
However, I do feel that to win the MAAC Championship Tourney we need more offensive options, and that comes down to Barrow, the rest of the returnees and 1-2 of the frosh. IMO, Jenkins is the key offensive boost, and I am hopefull that Van Nes can be the other.
Last Edit: Oct 18, 2012 21:29:57 GMT -5 by JoeStag
Post by gofairfield on Oct 18, 2012 10:38:18 GMT -5
I think we'll end up 4th or 5th. And the 4th seed has done very well the past couple of years: St. Peter's as the 4th seed winning the bid two years ago, and Fairfield knocking out Iona and making it to the championship game as the 4th seed last year.
I too think probably like a 4th place finish. I also have a funny feeling that this team is going to surprise us in the MAAC and may actually end up at 1 or 2. I think there will be trouble at Iona, Loyola will miss RJ williams until January(hurting their chemistry) and I think we can definitely handle Manhattan. It's gonna be fun, but I think we do better than most give us a chance at...