Hard to beat a team three times

[reindeerfan]

This post and analysis is from 2013

"It's hard to beat a team three times in a season."

I have heard this saying more times than I can remember and it has never made any sense to me. Why should it be hard to beat a team three times in a season? If Duke played Binghamton 3 times in a year, my money is on Duke in all three games. Bad teams lose and good team win. Good teams should consistantly beat bad teams no matter how many times they face each other.

So I decided to do a little checking. What's is Fairfield's record against teams in the maac tournament when they were either 0-2 versus the team in the regular season or when they were 2-0. The answer is shocking. At 2-0 or 0-2 the chances of the stags winning in the maac tourney are nearly 50/50. Here's a look at the last 20 years.

Last 20 years outcome for Fairfield in maac tournament facing a team they either beat twice or lost to twice in the regular season.

1993 Fairfield 2-0 versus Siena, lost in Maac tournament 2-1
1994 Fairfield 0-2 Versus Siena, lost in maac tournament 0-3
1995 Fairfield 2-0 Vs Iona, won in maac tournmanet 3-0
Fairfield 0-2 Versus Manhatten, lost in maac tournament 0-3
1996 Fairfield 2-0 Vs Siena, won in maac tournmanet 3-0
Fairfield 2-0 Vs Niagara, won in maac tournmanet 3-0
Fairfield 0-2 Versus Canisius. lost in maac tournament 0-3
1997 Fairfield 0-2 vs Iona, won in Maac tournament 1-2
Fairfield 0-2 Versus St. Peters won in maac tournament 1-2
Fairfield 0-2 Versus Canisius won in maac tournament 1-2
1998 N/A
1999 N/A
2000 N/A
2001 Fairfield 2-0 versus loyola, lost in Maac tournament 2-1
2002 Fairfield 0-2 Versus manhatten won in maac tournament 1-2
2003 Fairfield 2-0 Vs St. Peters, won in maac tournmanet 3-0
2004 N/A
2005 N/A
2006 N/A
2007 Fairfield 2-0 vs Loyola, lost in maac tournament 2-1
2008 N/A
2009 Fairfield 0-2 vs Siena, lost in maac tournament 0-3
2010 Fairfield 2-0 vs Canisius, won in Maac tournament 3-0
Fairfield 0-2 vs Siena, lost in maac tournament 0-3
2011 Fairfield 2-0 vs Marist, won in Maac tournament 3-0
Fairfield 2-0 vs St. Peters, lost in maac tournament 2-1
2012 Fairfield 0-2 vs Iona, won in maac tournament 1-2

11 times team went 3-0 or 0-3
9 times the results was an upset.

I'd like to do some more research and see how this is affected by seeds, but in looking at the data, I do think there are some logical reasons why these statistics are what they are. First the Maac is a conference with a lot of parity and the 4/5, 3/6. 7/10 and 8/9 games are all games where teams that are roughly comparable are squaring off. The 6th seed wins the 3/6 game 45% of the time. In some years a young team has lost a december and early January conference game and improved quite a bit by the maac tournament. Marist for example is a different team than they were 3 months ago. In other cases an injury to a key player affected the result. the 1997 team was 0-6 in the regular season against their maac tournament opponents (without a healthy bowman) and 3-0 when he was healthy. There have been many other injuries to stag players or competitors players that impacted the above results.

Perhaps the 1997 season really skews these stats, at some point perhaps I should review these numbers for the entire conference but that would take a lot of research. For now I can simply say there is a grain of truth to the statement that it can be difficult to beat a team three times in a season.

[typhaon]

It's just a saying...

It might be more accurate to say, "it's hard to beat a good team..." or, at least "it's hard to beat a better team..."

Stags should win the PIG - then have about a 30% chance vs. Loyola.

[mydadwasathappyhr]

Mar 6, 2013 1:23:40 GMT -5 typhaon said:

It's just a saying...

It might be more accurate to say, "it's hard to beat a good team..." or, at least "it's hard to beat a better team..."

Stags should win the PIG - then have about a 30% chance vs. Loyola.

Typh, the Quartefinal matchup would be Rider. Would have to beat them a third time too. 40 percent chance I think.

[swampstag]

From a matchup perspective we have the path that we want. Hopefully the fatigue factor of playing on back-back-back-back nights won't end up being the equalizer.

No all-night celebrations in the Springfield Sheraton after we win the PIG. Save it for the Student Prince! We'll tip toe back to the hotel as not to wake up the boys after a late Friday night.

[FU73]

rf, your research made Bill Paxton's ON CAMPUS local sports blog in the CT POST:

Fairfield men’s basketball fan, known on the message board as “reindeerfan” did a great job researching this info. The seventh-seeded Stags play No. 10 Saint Peter’s at 9:30 p.m. Friday in the MAAC first round at the MassMutal Center in Springfield, Mass.

Here’s “reindeerfan”‘s look over the last 20 years how Fairfield has fared playing a team three times (twice in regular season and once in MAAC tourney).....

[reindeerfan]

73: Thanks for sharing. I hadn't seen that.

blog.ctnews.com/college/

Paxton's been doing a great job, and I am really happy with his weekly sit down's with Sydney. Its really effective, as I always listen to it, and then I find myself reading his other stuff or visiting the CT Post site and reading things I otherwise would not.

[JoeStag]

RF,

Hopefully you got paid for this info. I am sure the checks in the mail.

[reindeerfan]

I'd settle for a cold beer but I don't think I'll even see that.......

[reindeerfan]

I thought I'd bump this thread from 7 years ago up, as I imagine we will hear this same sort of discussion over the next three days