I am not an Ensor fan either but i think it is not fair to criticize him. The situation is very fluid changing almost hourly. Easy to criticize the guy when you are not the person having to make the final decision, In the end Ensor and the conference members have decided on the side of caution which is probably the correct decision.
Post by reindeerfan on Mar 12, 2020 19:20:08 GMT -5
I have criticized Ensor for many things. But I don't criticize Ensor for cancelling. He is under pressure to do this from the university presidents. I'm not sure it was really his call. I also think the cancelling of the NCAA tournament might have made the decision easier and given him cover for this choice.
I wonder, Why didn't we cancel the 2003 MAAC tournament over SARS? How about the 2009 MAAC tournament over H1N1? According to the CDC in 2009 59 million Americans contracted the Swine Flu / H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died. What's different about this? If it turns out this virus is significantly less deadly than H1N1 was will we still think it was a good idea to cancel the MAAC tournament?
I have criticized Ensor for many things. But I don't criticize Ensor for cancelling. He is under pressure to do this from the university presidents. I'm not sure it was really his call. I also think the cancelling of the NCAA tournament might have made the decision easier and given him cover for this choice.
I wonder, Why didn't we cancel the 2003 MAAC tournament over SARS? How about the 2009 MAAC tournament over H1N1? According to the CDC in 2009 59 million Americans contracted the Swine Flu / H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died. What's different about this? If it turns out this virus is significantly less deadly than H1N1 was will we still think it was a good idea to cancel the MAAC tournament?
I think the answer is "this is different".
Unlike most strains of influenza, H1N1 did not disproportionately infect adults older than 60 years; this was an unusual characteristic feature of the H1N1 pandemic. Additionally, discovered in early 2009, there was a vaccine ready by the fall of 2009. They are saying 12-18 months for COVID-19.
SARS had spread to 8000 and killed 800 people by the time it was controlled globally. The outbreak of COVID-19 has already surpassed SARS and is expected to continue to grow. As of this morning over 132,000 cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, with over 4,500 deaths.
Additionally, we had a stronger infectious disease public health infrastructure and funding in place in 2003 and 2009 to react in both these cases. And maybe the medical community learned some things from these past outbreaks and has reacted proportionately.
Be calm and safe everyone. Listen to the medical experts and make sure you renew your Netflix subscription.
This is not just another flu.
Last Edit: Mar 13, 2020 6:13:17 GMT -5 by paulie74
I have criticized Ensor for many things. But I don't criticize Ensor for cancelling. He is under pressure to do this from the university presidents. I'm not sure it was really his call. I also think the cancelling of the NCAA tournament might have made the decision easier and given him cover for this choice.
I wonder, Why didn't we cancel the 2003 MAAC tournament over SARS? How about the 2009 MAAC tournament over H1N1? According to the CDC in 2009 59 million Americans contracted the Swine Flu / H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died. What's different about this? If it turns out this virus is significantly less deadly than H1N1 was will we still think it was a good idea to cancel the MAAC tournament?
Yes, it absolutely was the correct decision no matter how this virus turns out to be in relation to all the others. Better to be safe than sorry.
It's not quite fair to criticize Ensor for not making the decision sooner. It's not a race to cancel the tournaments and I'm sure there are a lot of considerations that go into making that decision that has a lot of repercussions.
It's not like he continued for two weeks after everyone else came to their decision. These are unprecedented times and things are happening very quickly. By the way, it wasn't solely his decision, was it? Isn't there a reference to a council of presidents that needs to be consulted?
I agree with all those thoughts, and BTW if you look back at the time-line of when he and the conference made the decision, actually you will see that the Big East made their decision right at about the same time. In fact it was at halftime of the St. John's-Marquette match-up.
I have criticized Ensor for many things. But I don't criticize Ensor for cancelling. He is under pressure to do this from the university presidents. I'm not sure it was really his call. I also think the cancelling of the NCAA tournament might have made the decision easier and given him cover for this choice.
I wonder, Why didn't we cancel the 2003 MAAC tournament over SARS? How about the 2009 MAAC tournament over H1N1? According to the CDC in 2009 59 million Americans contracted the Swine Flu / H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died. What's different about this? If it turns out this virus is significantly less deadly than H1N1 was will we still think it was a good idea to cancel the MAAC tournament?
I think the answer is "this is different".
Well this is the fundamental question. Is this the 2009 H1N1 pandemic or the 1918 Spanish Flu? What made the 1918 Spanish Flu so horrific was 1) It had a high mortality rate among young healthy individuals, 2) It had a high transmission rate. The corona virus does not demonstrate the mortality rate or the transmission rate of the spanish flu. It is true that the transmission rate of Corona is higher than h1n1. however the mortality rate is not. Young healthy people are not dying of coronavirus, while they did die of h1n1. From the perspective of a college athlete the 2009 h1n1 pandemic was much more serious.
Unlike most strains of influenza, H1N1 did not disproportionately infect adults older than 60 years; this was an unusual characteristic feature of the H1N1 pandemic.
Exactly. H1N1 effected and harmed people of all ages. That is why it was much more serious than Corona virus. Corona Virus disproportionately affects the sick and aged. The mortality rate for corona virus among those over the age of 70 above 10%. Over 80 is 16.7%. The mortality rate of those under the age of 9 is 0%. The rate for those under the age of 40 less than .002, and those mortality's seem to be individuals with underlying health conditions. Corona affects those that are already compromised where h1n1 was dangerous because it affected the healthy.
I don't want to turn this board into a medical forum so I will leave it there. We will all have the opportunity to revisit this topic in our minds given the benefit of time, but I will go on record with a prediction that more people will die from influenza this year than will die from corona virus. And we will look at this matter with the perspective of time and wonder why young healthy people were deprived from the opportunity to play in meaningful competitions over an illness that was no more dangerous to them than than the annual flu.
Last Edit: Mar 13, 2020 10:36:50 GMT -5 by reindeerfan
The science is pretty clear. Coronavirus is transmitted more easily than flu and has a death rate higher by significant multiples. Moreover it is the young people who are most likely to transmit it to those over 60 or with serious conditions. Low end of CDC estimates project deaths significantly higher than flu. Let’s hope this response is overblown. But it may also end up saving lives.
I have criticized Ensor for many things. But I don't criticize Ensor for cancelling. He is under pressure to do this from the university presidents. I'm not sure it was really his call. I also think the cancelling of the NCAA tournament might have made the decision easier and given him cover for this choice.
I wonder, Why didn't we cancel the 2003 MAAC tournament over SARS? How about the 2009 MAAC tournament over H1N1? According to the CDC in 2009 59 million Americans contracted the Swine Flu / H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died. What's different about this? If it turns out this virus is significantly less deadly than H1N1 was will we still think it was a good idea to cancel the MAAC tournament?
I think the answer is "this is different".
Unlike most strains of influenza, H1N1 did not disproportionately infect adults older than 60 years; this was an unusual characteristic feature of the H1N1 pandemic. Additionally, discovered in early 2009, there was a vaccine ready by the fall of 2009. They are saying 12-18 months for COVID-19.
SARS had spread to 8000 and killed 800 people by the time it was controlled globally. The outbreak of COVID-19 has already surpassed SARS and is expected to continue to grow. As of this morning over 132,000 cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, with over 4,500 deaths.
Additionally, we had a stronger infectious disease public health infrastructure and funding in place in 2003 and 2009 to react in both these cases. And maybe the medical community learned some things from these past outbreaks and has reacted proportionately.
Be calm and safe everyone. Listen to the medical experts and make sure you renew your Netflix subscription.
This is not just another flu.
A little history on the Spanish Flu. It was hitting the guys in the trenches during WW1 and asymptomatic and mild cases were left in the trenches to keep fighting and the very sick were removed off the front line. This very much exacerbated the spread to the field nurses and general population who were helping care for them which then spread all across the world. Whereas if they were left in the trenches, the outcome may have been far different.
Post by jenningsbeach on Mar 13, 2020 13:51:37 GMT -5
The first case of H1N1 was discovered in April 2009, and the lethality rate of that swine flu was .02 percent, lower than seasonal flu (.1 percent). Interestingly, 85 percent of H1N1 victims were 65 years AND YOUNGER. It did not kill the elderly in numbers you would expect.
The coronavirus is way more lethal -- the worldwide fatality rate of COVID-19 is 3.5 percent of confirmed cases. The United States seems to be a week behind Italy's trajectory and its nearly 7 percent death rate of confirmed cases. That trajectory would overwhelm the American medical system. A major lesson learned from Italy is that social distancing/community mitigation is a good way to slow the spread of the virus. (Some medical experts say up to 150 million Americans could be infected before it recedes; a 1 percent lethality is 1.5 million dead. That number is obviously worst case, and no one expects a million Americans to die. But we are in uncharted territory. With our failure to test properly, we have no idea what's coming over the next few weeks and months.)
So I salute the school superintendents, sports commissioners, college presidents, governors and business owners who took action, because all these cancelations and postponements and school closings and work-at-home mandates have given doctors and nurses on the front lines a fighting chance. I don't think it's an overreaction at all.
Well there's not agreement on the Kansas thing at all. Kansas was originally thought to be the source of the original outbreak but the first case in Kansas was in 2018 and now there is evidence of thousands of cases in China in 2017. Many / most epidemologists believe the spanish flu started in Northern China and spread to canada via chinese workers that were secretly transported europe to support the allies during the first world war. The flu spread like wildfire among the chinese workers that were hidden in close quarters in cattle cars. The flu began popping up in canadian at rails stations and these chinese workers then spread the flu to allies forces in the trenches when they arrived in europe.
The Canadian and US Government's were well aware of the spanish flu outbreak but kept a lid on it as they did not want word to get out about mass illness among the allied forces. When the flu spread to spain the first public reports surfaced in the spanish media, (spain was neutral in the war so they were not restricted from reporting on this) and when the spanish king got sick the term "spanish flu" stuck. German troops became infected from a british pow and they secretly were dealing with the same sort of out break as the allies although it took 4 months longer for them to be affected.
I have studied the Spanish Flu epidemic in some detail, and it is one of the reasons why I feel Corona is a very different situation. I could write for pages on the topic, but since this is a basketball forum I won't. I understand caution is always in order, but I think we are beyond caution and are at panic level 4 which is simply not warranted given the facts that are available at this time.
Last Edit: Mar 13, 2020 14:40:12 GMT -5 by reindeerfan
Well there's not agreement on the Kansas thing at all. Kansas was originally thought to be the source of the original outbreak but the first case in Kansas was in 2018 and now there is evidence of thousands of cases in China in 2017. Many / most epidemologists believe the spanish flu started in Northern China and spread to canada via chinese workers that were secretly transported europe to support the allies during the first world war. The flu spread like wildfire among the chinese workers that were hidden in close quarters in cattle cars. The flu began popping up in canadian at rails stations and these chinese workers then spread the flu to allies forces in the trenches when they arrived in europe.
The Canadian and US Government's were well aware of the spanish flu outbreak but kept a lid on it as they did not want word to get out about mass illness among the allied forces. When the flu spread to spain the first public reports surfaced in the spanish media, (spain was neutral in the war so they were not restricted from reporting on this) and when the spanish king got sick the term "spanish flu" stuck. German troops became infected from a british pow and they secretly were dealing with the same sort of out break as the allies although it took 4 months longer for them to be affected.
I have studied the Spanish Flu epidemic in some detail, and it is one of the reasons why I feel Corona is a very different situation. I could right for pages on the topic, but since this is a basketball forum I won't. I understand caution is always in order, but I think we are beyond caution and are at panic level 4 which is simply not warranted given the facts that are available at this time.
Well what the hell else are we gonna talk about! hahahahahahaha
The coronavirus is way more lethal -- the worldwide fatality rate of COVID-19 is 3.5 percent of confirmed cases.
Confirmed cases is the operative phrase in that sentence. The only people being tested right now are the seriously ill. Many people are getting Corona, and don't know they have it or are not being tested. Until widespread testing is conducted published mortality rates will be crude estimates and significantly overstated. If you look at published reports early in the H1n1 outbreak mortality rates were estimated to be 2-3%. Ultimately rates proved to be lower than for common flu strains. (less than 1%) Its very early in this outbreak, the numbers are still yet to be seen. But, since September in the united states:
2019-2020 seasonal illnesses United states Flu cases 51,000,000 Flu deaths: 55,000 Corona Virus Cases: 1875 Corona virus deaths: 41
I'm not saying we should not be caution about Coronavirus. We need to take precautions. But they are the exact same precautions we should take against the flu. We need to have perspective. The flu kills more people every year than H1N1 did, and it will likely kill many more people this year than the coronavirus. No one was concerend about the flu. Why all the panic about coronavirus?