Looking at the remaining games, it seems Marist’s schedule and the results of their games will go a long way in determining the top seeds for the tournament. They have 4 games left, three of them at home —- against us on ESPNU, Iona and their last game of the season Niagara. Before Niagara, they play Quinnipiac in Hamden.
It’s difficult to try and assess how Marist will do in those games as their leading scorer, Max Allen II, occasionally doesn’t play due to injury. He didn’t play in their loss yesterday at St. Peter’s; he injured his foot in pregame warmups.
Post by jenningsbeach on Feb 26, 2024 11:37:02 GMT -5
Quinnipiac plays road games at Iona and St. Peter's and hosts Marist and Siena. There is at least one loss lurking there. If we can win out, the Stags will take the MAAC regular-season crown.
Post by ctghostman on Feb 26, 2024 12:55:10 GMT -5
Health and depth matter a lot when a team is playing 3 games in 4 days, 4 in 4, or 4 in 5 We healthy and deep. Only concern would be Yetna playing in such a stretch. Huge advantage for the 1/2 seed to play a lower seed that played the prior night then a day off before playing the 4 or 3 seed who would be playing on back to backs.
Marist had a starter sit with an injury yesterday and Iona just lost their best player.
Marist will be a tight spread game, we’ll be comfortable favorites vs MSM and Canisius.
Post by reindeerfan on Feb 26, 2024 13:36:50 GMT -5
The schedule is fairly favorable for the Stags. Quinnipiac has 3 tough games remaining, the Stags have one. But I think the Stags need to win out. Marist is the biggest test. I am hoping Allen wouldn't be ready for Friday, would love to see him back the following weekend for Niagara and Quinnipiac.
Post by alsostagparty on Mar 2, 2024 8:41:04 GMT -5
We tend to start games slow before we get into gear. (Even though we couldn’t find the accelerator last night). The long wait until the next game will not help.
Post by alsostagparty on Mar 2, 2024 11:04:29 GMT -5
We at least need the #2 seed to avoid having to play three nights in a row in the tourney. #1 or #2….we can’t sink any lower. I’d like to see more determination from all of our players. You have to show that you want the championship on the court!
Last Edit: Mar 2, 2024 11:05:06 GMT -5 by alsostagparty
Post by reindeerfan on Mar 2, 2024 12:58:31 GMT -5
Well, its really too bad. We had control of our own destiny and now we don't. With the Stags off Sunday we are on the sideline watching. Here are the favorites in each game:
Saint Peters over Manhatten Quinnipiac over Siena Niagara over mount Marist over Iona Rider over Canisius
If those games play out as the oddsmakers suggest MONDAYS STANDINGS would look like this:
1) Quinnipiac (13-5) 2) Fairfield (12-6) 3) Marist (12-6) 4) Saint Peter’s (12-6) 5) Niagara (11-7) 6) Rider (11-8) 7) Iona (8-10) 8) Mount St. Mary’s (8-11) 9) Canisius (7-11) 10) Siena (3-15) 11) Manhattan (3-15)
Fairfield would be 2nd in the mini pool between the three schools as we would be 3-1, Marist 2-2 and SPU 1-3. So we have to continue to hope St. Peters wins and Niagara loses as Fairfield benefits from a tie that include SPU and is hurt if Niagara is the in mix. Marist and SPU both have among the more difficult remaining schedules
Sunday Rider Canisius MSM Niagara Iona Marist Siena Quinnipiac Manhattan Saint Peter's Thursday Marist Quinnipiac Canisius Fairfield Iona Manhattan Niagara Siena Saint Peter's Rider Saturday Siena Iona Niagara Marist Quinnipiac Saint Peter's Fairfield MSM Canisius Manhattan
Its now a 4 way race for first. -Quinnipiac completely controls their own destiny. If they beat Siena, SPU and Marist, they finish first (15-5). -The clearest path to first for Fairfield requires St. Peter's to win out and Fairfield to win out. Stags finish first. Fairfield and SPU would be 14-6 along with either Marist or Quinnipiac who would lose the tiebreaker to Fairfield because of St. Peters. So Stags have become huge Peacock fans. -Fairfield controls their own destiny over Niagara if Stags win out, Fairfield cannot finish worse than 4th. With two losses Fairfield can still finish as low as 6th. -SPU needs Fairfield to lose for them to have a path to first. -If Marist runs the table the rest of the way, they finish 14-6. In a 3 way mini-pool with Fairfield and Quinnipiac each team is 2-2. First place would could down to whether Niagara or SPU finish next. The tiebreakers scenarios needed for Marist to finish first are complicated but require Niagara and Rider winning some games.
There are so many possible combinations still, this is worst than the NL East in 1973. Even after the next two games I imagine there will be possibilities for 3 teams to finish first.
Last Edit: Mar 2, 2024 13:00:00 GMT -5 by reindeerfan
Post by nashvillestag on Mar 2, 2024 13:33:19 GMT -5
RF, indeed still so many possibilities as you say, so certainly I and I'm sure everyone else reading this appreciates your effort to keep us all up to date. However one question I have regards Fairfield and if the worst happens and they lose the last two, how can they not finish 5th or better considering the 6th best team at the moment, Rider, already has 8 losses and lost both games to the Stags which would mean they lose the tie-breaker if they both end up with 8 losses? What am I missing here? Anyway concerning the 73 NL East race, I'm not sure if I remember exactly how it played out, but I do remember that Yogi Berra was the manager of the eventual champs, the Mets, and I'm sure he was stating many times down the stretch that "it ain't over till it's over" to his club to keep them motivated to the end, right?
An additional factor to all the remaining games is which game will be the Senior Game for which school. It’s seldom that a home team loses on Senior Day as we demonstrated last season easily handling Quinnipiac on our Senior Game after they had beaten us fairly easily in Hamden earlier in the year. On a neutral court, I like our chances against Mount St. Mary’s but it will be much more difficult to win in Emmitsburg if that game is their Senior Game.
Edit: Don’t know for sure but high probability that today (March 3) is the Senior Day game for both Canisius and Niagara as both schools have two away games next week. Rider, with a 5 game win streak, is at Canisius and MSM is at Niagara today.
A quick look at the standings and I believe as long as we beat Canisius on Thursday, we’re guaranteed a first round bye in the MAAC tournament. Predicting anything beyond that is above my pay grade. MAAC Monday ought to be fascinating as this is when Daly usually runs down the seeding possibilities based on the possible results of the games in the last week of the regular season.
Post by reindeerfan on Mar 3, 2024 16:34:50 GMT -5
^Yes, MAAC MONDAY usually does a great job with this and I will leave it to them to publish this, the number of combinations remaining are still numerous. However, I will say three things:
Fairfield can finish no worse than 5th Stags are champs if SPU and Fairfield run the table. Stags can generally avoid any negative tiebreakers as long as they win at least one of the final two games.
2023-24 MAAC STANDINGS
Team
Record
GB
OVR
Quinnipiac
13-5
-
21-8
Fairfield
12-6
1
18-11
Saint Peter's
12-6
1
16-11
Marist
11-7
2
16-11
Rider
11-8
2.5
14-16
Niagara
10-8
3
14-14
Iona
9-9
4
14-15
Mount St. Mary's
9-10
4.5
13-17
Canisius
7-11
6
12-16
Siena
3-15
10
4-25
Manhattan
3-15
10
6-21
Thursday Marist Quinnipiac Canisius Fairfield Iona Manhattan Niagara Siena Saint Peter's Rider Saturday Siena Iona Niagara Marist Quinnipiac Saint Peter's Fairfield MSM Canisius Manhattan
Saint Peters and Rider are now the hottest teams in the MAAC winners of 5 and 6 straight games respectively.
Last Edit: Mar 3, 2024 16:35:31 GMT -5 by reindeerfan
