^Yes, MAAC MONDAY usually does a great job with this and I will leave it to them to publish this, the number of combinations remaining are still numerous. However, I will say three things:
Fairfield can finish no worse than 5th Stags are champs if SPU and Fairfield run the table. Stags can generally avoid any negative tiebreakers as long as they win at least one of the final two games.
2023-24 MAAC STANDINGS
Team
Record
GB
OVR
Quinnipiac
13-5
-
21-8
Fairfield
12-6
1
18-11
Saint Peter's
12-6
1
16-11
Marist
11-7
2
16-11
Rider
11-8
2.5
14-16
Niagara
10-8
3
14-14
Iona
9-9
4
14-15
Mount St. Mary's
9-10
4.5
13-17
Canisius
7-11
6
12-16
Siena
3-15
10
4-25
Manhattan
3-15
10
6-21
Thursday Marist Quinnipiac Canisius Fairfield Iona Manhattan Niagara Siena Saint Peter's Rider Saturday Siena Iona Niagara Marist Quinnipiac Saint Peter's Fairfield MSM Canisius Manhattan
Saint Peters and Rider are now the hottest teams in the MAAC winners of 5 and 6 straight games respectively.
One of their win streaks ends on Thursday as Rider hosts St. Peter’s in the last game of the MAAC regular season for Rider. When they met in late January in Jersey City, Rider won 62-57.
Rider on a 6-game roll and have snuck into the bye round. Rooting for the Broncs for one more game – vs St. Pete Thursday in Lawrenceville.
I think the outcome of this game will ultimately mean little to Fairfield - if the Stags win out they beat St. Peters. But if Rider wins there is a pathway for Niagara to tie St. Peters for 4th place which would hurt the Stags in tiebreakers. So a SPU win over Rider may be better for Fairfield, unless Niagara were to lose to Siena (unlikely).
The Stags need to win out. The two most critical games for Fairfield are Marist-Quinnipiac and SPU-Quinnipiac. Stags need one or preferably both those teams to knock off Quinnipiac. I will let MAAC MONDAY clear all the scenarios up but I believe a loss by Quinnipiac and two Stags wins is all we need. Provided SPU finishes ahead of Niagara.
The way the schedule plays out Quinnipiac Marist and SPU have the toughest path. Those 3 teams are guaranteed 3 wins and 3 losses because they go head to head. So the Stags need to Stag ahead of Marist and SPU which they can do simply by winning both games.
Rider on a 6-game roll and have snuck into the bye round. Rooting for the Broncs for one more game – vs St. Pete Thursday in Lawrenceville.
I think the outcome of this game will ultimately mean little to Fairfield - if the Stags win out they beat St. Peters. But if Rider wins there is a pathway for Niagara to tie St. Peters for 4th place which would hurt the Stags in tiebreakers. So a SPU win over Rider may be better for Fairfield, unless Niagara were to lose to Siena (unlikely).
The Stags need to win out. The two most critical games for Fairfield are Marist-Quinnipiac and SPU-Quinnipiac. Stags need one or preferably both those teams to knock off Quinnipiac. I will let MAAC MONDAY clear all the scenarios up but I believe a loss by Quinnipiac and two Stags wins is all we need. Provided SPU finishes ahead of Niagara.
The way the schedule plays out Quinnipiac Marist and SPU have the toughest path. Those 3 teams are guaranteed 3 wins and 3 losses because they go head to head. So the Stags need to Stag ahead of Marist and SPU which they can do simply by winning both games.
Well not all games are created equal. We need SPU over QU. That makes us 2-0 vs them and QU 1-1. If SPU finishes 3rd we win tiebreaker over QU. Without that tiebreaker advantage we are toast. Even if QU loses to Marist and we are both 1-1 it keeps bumping down and once you get to Iona they swept us which kills us because QU swept Iona. Our only advantage is SPU at this point.
Here is a good tweet about probabilities. We always have a bye and cannot finisher lower than 4 based on tiebreakers.
Seedings for the MAAC Men's and Women's Basketball Championships shall be based on the order of finish in the standings. Ties will be broken as follows:
Two-Way Tie If there is a tie(s) for any place(s) in the standings, then the results of the in-season head-to-head competition shall be used to break that tie.
If two teams split their in-season games, then the committee shall use the best record against the highest-seeded remaining teams in descending order as the tiebreaker.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedure).
If a tie still exists, then the commissioner or his designee shall use a coin toss to break the tie.
Multiple-Team Tie (3 or more teams) Three or more teams tied are viewed as a "mini-conference" when comparing head-to-head results. The team with the best record vs. the other teams in the mini-conference gains the advantage. If all the teams in the mini-conference have the same mini-conference record, proceed to B below. If two or more teams, but not all, have the same best record in the mini-conference, only those specific teams advance to the next tiebreaker step.
After the top team(s) in a mini-conference is determined, the next team is ranked by its record in the original mini-conference. If there are two remaining teams tied by their record in the mini-conference, then head-to-head results will determine the higher seed. If the teams split their games then proceed to B below.
If there are three or more teams remaining tied by their record in the mini-conference, they would then form a new mini-conference and follow the procedure again starting at A.
The next step in breaking all or part of a mini-conference tie is each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the league, continuing down through the division standings until one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedure).
If ties still exist, then the commissioner or his designee shall use a coin toss to break the tie.
Post by stagshoops3 on Mar 7, 2024 22:55:48 GMT -5
If I followed the rules right, here is what we need to happen to be the 1 seed in the MAAC tourney:
- Win at Mount St Mary - St Peters win vs QU - Marist win vs. Niagara
This would tie us with QU alone at 14-6, make St. Peter’s the 3 seed and make Marist and Rider the 4-5 in some order. Both FU and QU are 1-1 vs. St. Peters and Marist. We would win the tiebreaker with a 2-0 record vs. Rider.
Post by jenningsbeach on Mar 7, 2024 23:05:25 GMT -5
If I'm not mistaken (and maybe I am), Fairfield can do no worse than second place. Worst case: We finish even with St. Peter's at 13-7 and win the tiebreaker. Best case: If the Stags beat MSM and St. Peter's defeats Quinnipiac on Saturday, the good guys finish first.
Last Edit: Mar 7, 2024 23:12:54 GMT -5 by jenningsbeach
Post by jenningsbeach on Mar 7, 2024 23:20:28 GMT -5
Yes, 1 or 2.
Updated MAAC seeding scenarios: March 7, 2024
Updated after all five games on Thursday, March 7 have gone final, here are the current seeding scenarios for next week’s Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Men’s Basketball Championship, which begins Tuesday, March 12, at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City:
Quinnipiac (14-5): Has clinched first-round bye and at least a share of the regular season championship. The Bobcats will finish as either the #1 or #2 seed.
Fairfield (13-6): Has clinched a first-round bye and will finish as either the #1 or #2 seed.
Saint Peter’s (12-7): Has clinched a first-round bye and will finish as the #3 or #5 seed.
Rider (12-8): Has clinched a first-round bye and will finish as the #3, #4 or #5 seed.
Niagara (11-8): Can finish as the #4 or #6 seed. The Purple Eagles will clinch a first-round bye with a win Saturday at Marist.
Marist (11-8): Can finish as the #3, #4 or #6 seed. The Red Foxes will clinch a first-round bye with a win Saturday vs. Niagara.
Mount St. Mary’s (9-10): Will finish as the #7 or #8 seed. The Mountaineers will play in the opening round on Tuesday, March 12.
Iona (9-10): Will finish as the #7 or #8 seed. The Gaels will play in the opening round on Tuesday, March 12.
Canisius (7-12): The Golden Griffins have clinched the #9 seed and will play in the opening round on Tuesday, March 12 at 5 p.m.
Manhattan (4-15): Will finish as either the #10 or #11 seed. The Jaspers will play in the opening round on Tuesday, March 12.
Siena (3-16): Will finish as either the #10 or #11 seed. The Saints will play in the opening round on Tuesday, March 12.
These scenarios will be updated both on this site and on Twitter (dalydoseofhoops) in the days leading up to the first tournament game on Tuesday, March 12.
Last Edit: Mar 7, 2024 23:22:51 GMT -5 by jenningsbeach
Why does the MAAC site currently showing QU as the regular season champs? I thought that won’t be decided until after the next games, QU vs St Pete’s and FF vs MSM?
Why does the MAAC site currently showing QU as the regular season champs? I thought that won’t be decided until after the next games, QU vs St Pete’s and FF vs MSM?
Can't be accurate. Stags still win they beat MSM and if SPU beats Quinnipiac Fairfield holds the tiebreaker.
Last Edit: Mar 8, 2024 0:09:30 GMT -5 by reindeerfan
Either way as a #1 seed or a #2 seed the stags open the MAAC tournament playing on Wed March 13. Then if they win a rest day on Thursday and then play again on Friday. Correct?
Why does the MAAC site currently showing QU as the regular season champs? I thought that won’t be decided until after the next games, QU vs St Pete’s and FF vs MSM?
Can't be accurate. Stags still win is SPU beats Quinnipiac Fairfield holds the tiebreaker.
I thought it would be a share since our records would be identical. Tie breaker just goes for seeding
Either way as a #1 seed or a #2 seed the stags open the MAAC tournament playing on Wed March 13. Then if they win a rest day on Thursday and then play again on Friday. Correct?